SUNNYVALE, Calif. -- Over the years, there has been a dramatic change in the IC manufacturing base.
There are fewer companies with fabs. Many IDMs are going fab-lite or fabless. Fabless companies are gaining share. And the foundries are gaining more control of the manufacturing picture.
What are the future trends in the arena? During an event here, Bill McClean, president of IC Insights Inc. (Scottsdale, Ariz.), outlined five trends--and predictions--in the IC supply base:
1. No new IC companies with fabs
''Barriers to entry are too high for new IDMs. With no entry-point opportunities, the IC industry is closed to new major manufacturing startups. Chinese companies (are the) last group of newcomers. GlobalFoundries Inc. doesn't count'' given it was already part of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
2. Fab-lite movement will continue to gain momentum
''Conservative foundry spending will lead to better pricing environment for the foundries.''
3. Record low capital spending as a percentage of sales
''This will lead to higher fab capacity utilization and increased pricing power for IC manufacturers.''
4. Delays in moving to 450-mm
''The recession put 450-mm on the backburner. We may not see 450-mm for five years.''
5. The result of these trends?
''Long-term stable-to-increasing IC ASPs and IC market CAGRs of 8-to-10 percent.''
